If the CMG NDR U.S. Large Cap Long/Flat Index line is between 50 and 60 and the trend is lower than it was 42 days ago, then the process steps from 80% invested to 40% invested. Trade Signals started after a colleague asked me if I could share my thoughts (Trade Signals) with him. The material on this site can not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, cached or otherwise used, except with prior written permission of Multiply. Managed Futures — The Morningstar Managed Futures Index is down 0.89% YTD, down 0.64% over the last three months, down 1.77% over the last month and down 4.41% over the last 12 months. 13-week vs. 34-week exponential moving average. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Risk premiums vary a great deal over time in response to new market information or changes in the economic environment or even changes in investor sentiment. When risk premiums increase or decrease, stocks and bonds and other assets have to be priced again. What food was Thomas Jefferson the first president to eat? Executive Chairman & CIO To another shore, What is the timing order of an 1985 Plymouth horizon? April 5, 2017 Pour autoriser Verizon Media et nos partenaires à traiter vos données personnelles, sélectionnez 'J'accepte' ou 'Gérer les paramètres' pour obtenir plus d’informations et pour gérer vos choix. And we’re passionate about educating advisors and investors about tactical investing. Solactive AG and all other companies mentioned in this document will not be responsible for the consequences of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or for any omission. I favor up to 5% in gold with an increase to 10% when the long-term trend turns bullish. Hypothetical Presentations:  To the extent that any portion of the content reflects  hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including: (1) the model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using client assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight; (2) back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the advisor’s use of the model if the model had been used during the period to actually manage client assets; and, (3) CMG’s clients may have experienced investment results during the corresponding time periods that were materially different from those portrayed in the model. The CMG Managed High Yield Bond Program takes exposure in HY ETFs/funds when the trend is favorable (prices trending higher) and trades to Treasury Bills (cash) when the trend is unfavorable (prices trending lower). 54, D­60325 Frankfurt am Main, E­Mail: indexing@solactive.com. I’m friendly with some of the world’s greatest investors and none of them see themselves as perfect. Over time, it’s really about understanding the power of compound interest. It helps me to stick to a long-term focused, disciplined investment process and I hope it helps you as well. (Instrumental) Seventy-three men sailed up. A number of years ago, I found that putting pen to paper has really helped me in my investment management process and I hope that this research is of value to you in your investment process. Hire an experienced advisor to help you. How old was tom felton when he lost his virginity? The Daily Sentiment data is now signaling a bullish period for equities. "* I awaken, as if from a dream... or perhaps I have now just entered the dream time. The Zweig Bond Model:  “SELL” – a bearish signal for high quality fixed income bond funds and ETF exposure. No representation is being made that any client will or is likely to achieve results similar to those presented herein. The CMG Tactical Fixed Income Index, CMG Tactical All Asset Index, CMG Tactical Equity Index and CMG Beta Rotation Index (the “Indexes”) are rules-­based indexes that reflect the theoretical performance an investor would have obtained had it invested in the manner shown and do not represent actual returns, as investors cannot invest directly in the Indexes. Diversification means that not all investment risks perform at the same time. See the CMG NDR U.S. Large Cap Long/Flat Index line (center of chart). The performance results shown include the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. See important disclosures below. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any CMG client from any specific funds or securities. Think of it as a systematic way to de-risk (raise cash) or re-risk (invest in large cap stocks). Certain portions of the content may contain a discussion of, and/or provide access to, opinions and/or recommendations of CMG (and those of other investment and non-investment professionals) as of a specific prior date. You can always connect with CMG on Twitter at @askcmg and follow our LinkedIn Showcase page devoted to tactical investing. You can compare the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Max DD to the Model’s Max DD. Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Investor Sentiment:  Investor sentiment is an indicator designed to highlight short-term swings in investor psychology. It is often hard to stay the course when stress presents. Their clients are institutional (professional) investor clients like CMG. Overall, the process is a disciplined, systematic process designed to reduce risk (raise cash) and systematically increase risk (fully invest). 0% exposure when both S/T and L/T indicators are bearish. Do you gain or lose an hour of sleep in fall in Daylight Saving Time? The Index is up 12.02% (gross) and 9.76% (net of 225 bps hypothetical maximum annual fee) over the last five years vs. up 6.83% for the Morningstar Moderate Target Risk Index (no fees) over the same period. The Index is up 6.38% (gross) and 4.13% (net of 225 bps hypothetical maximum annual fee) over the last five years vs. 0.58% for the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index over the same period. For some time, I’ve been talking about the following: the issues in the high yield bond market, issues that can present post-QE and zero interest rate policy, issues with unmanageable debt in Europe, Japan and China and the issues a rising dollar may trigger as it relates to the $9 trillion in EM debt that was borrowed in dollars. I’m just a big fan of their research and their way of thinking. This info service is offered exclusively by Solactive AG, Guiollettstr. What we can do is build portfolios that are diversified across a number of risk factors and market environments. Solactive AG uses its best efforts to ensure that the Index is calculated correctly. More buyers than sellers or more sellers than buyers. Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Some of this research helps to shape our thinking around risk management and it helps us think about how we might size various risks within the construct of a total portfolio. Go to www.cboe.com to learn more. We can laugh our lives away You have here on your trip. We can manage risk not only by the collections of ETFs and funds selected but also how we combine them together. Next, if the index line is above 70 (an environment where most stocks/sectors are doing well… broad-based positive sector participation), then the signal is always a buy signal (i.e., remain 100% invested). It highlights just how important Fed activity is to market performance. Diversification – Suggested Client Talking Points: A diversified investment portfolio is designed to meet pre-defined investment goals. When to hedge, when to become more aggressive, etc. NOT FDIC INSURED. Please note: In the event that CMG references performance results for an actual CMG portfolio, the results are reported net of advisory fees and inclusive of dividends. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing. For information purposes only. The performance referenced is that as determined and/or provided directly by the referenced funds and/or publishers, have not been independently verified, and do not reflect the performance of any specific CMG client.

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